The Last 300-Game Winner?

As I write this sports blog, we're in the bottom of the ninth inning of the Giants-Nationals game, and it's only a matter of time before Brian Wilson (the Giants' closer, not the Beach Boy) closes this game out, and Randy Johnson notches career victory number 300. I really like Randy Johnson--he's not what he used to be, but he's still very effective, he's intimidating, and he's a fellow lefty (although he is a much better pitcher than I ever was). I've been looking forward to him earning his 300th win sometime this season, hoping against some kind of season-ending or career-ending injury before he could get it.

300 wins is a colossal milestone--you only have to win 15 games a year for 20 years to get 300. A pitcher winning 300 games is on par with another position player getting 3,000 hits. And, to be nerdily precise, 27 players have collected 3,000 hits, and 24 pitchers have won 300 games. I originally thought 25 pitchers had won 300 games, but somebody had added a fake name to Wikipedia's list of 300-game winners, a name that disappeared when I checked again a couple of minutes later--no wonder I hadn't heard of that one guy. I guess I need to use baseball-reference.com exclusively for my stat searches from now on. But anyway, a pitcher winning 300 games is not something that exactly happens all that often, so I think it's a pretty big deal when it does.

However, in listening to Mike and Mike in the Morning today, the titular hosts voiced concern that Randy Johnson may be the last 300-game winner we ever see, or at least the last one for a very long time. I was thinking about it today, all of the contributing factors, and I don't think Randy Johnson is the last 300-game winner. But it may very well be awhile before we see another.

Right now, baseball is an offensively-minded sport. Even with players around the league coming off the juice, volleys upon volleys of home runs are still being hit, they're not raising the mound anytime soon, and pitchers generally don't have it as well as they once did.

Also, more attention is paid to the health and wellbeing of pitchers today. While Tommy John surgery and other advanced modern medicine can potentially extend the careers of some pitchers and get them more wins, so much attention is given to pitch counts that pitchers are pulled before getting the chance to win a game more often now than in years past. Along those same lines, the 5-man starting rotation may keep a staff fresher than a 4-man rotation, but it also hurts a pitcher's chances of racking up 300 wins.

Furthermore, increased use of relief specialists may be contributing to starters bowing out earlier in games. If it's late in the game, the starter is still in, and a big left-handed power bat like Ryan Howard steps up to the plate, if the situation calls for it, the manager is going to put his lefty specialist in the game. At this point, the lefty specialist will likely give up a home run (and the lead) to the power hitter, and the starter will lose his shot at the win and not be able to do anything about it. Bummer.

If there are any established pitchers in the league right now that have a good shot at 300 wins, their name is probably Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia. There might be some still-mysterious youngsters out there who can do it, but we just don't know enough about them yet to make a judgment. But based on age and the number of wins they have now, Santana and Sabathia probably have the best chance. Santana is 30 and has 116 wins, while Sabathia is 28 and has 122 wins. They're gonna have to be really good and avoid long injuries for the rest of their careers, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that they could be our next 300-game winners. Roy Oswalt may also have a shot at age 31 and 131 wins. Andy Pettite has a very outside chance at 37 years old and 220 wins, but that would require four 20-win seasons. Jamie Moyer just hit 250 wins, but he's 46 years old, so 300 seems pretty unlikely for him, as well. Unless Pettite or Moyer go nuts and pull off the unthinkable, we're probably looking at at least nine or ten years before we see the next 300-game winner. But there will definitely be another.

Lastly, I registered for a chance to buy All-Star game tickets. Which, I find it amusing that I registered for a chance to buy tickets, rather than win tickets. Is this what it has come to? In any case, I didn't win. Oh well.