2015 Semoball Cup

Math was never a strong subject in school for me. It was a peg better than grammar as regular readers can attest. But numbers always fascinated me when it came to sports because they can reveal truth.

For the past year I've taken on the task of using numbers to determine which of the 55 area high schools had the most success and award the Semoball Cup.

The basics were announced in April but since I have tried to iron out some issues. Mainly, how can a smaller school compete with larger schools that field more teams.

Here's how the formula works:

The base number each team earns is overall winning percentage for the entire program. Take the wins and divide by the number of games played (w/gm=pct. or 5/10=.500). A team with a .6726 winning percentage earns 67.26 points.

It doesn't matter how many teams a school fields, because the overall winning percentage averages out, but smaller schools tend to have an advantage because they have fewer teams to bring that average down. The top three in winning-percentage points this past season were all smaller schools but only one cracked the top 10.

Schools also earn points for advancing through the postseason. From five points for a runner-up showing in the district to 200 points for winning a state title.

Larger schools, however, have more chances to advance in postseason play than their smaller counterparts.

For example, Poplar Bluff has 10 teams that can score postseason points while Naylor has just four. That gives Poplar Bluff a 1-in-10 chance to Naylor's 1-in-4 chance, or a 85.7143 percent more of a chance to advance.

To take that advantage out of the equation the postseason points were divided by the number of teams a school fields. If both schools won a state title, Naylor earns 50.0 points to Poplar Bluff's 20, a difference of 85.7143 percent.

In postseason play, schools compete against others of equal size and the chance to win a district in each class is about the same. For example in baseball, there are four area Class 5 teams competing for one title while in Class 2 there are 15 schools playing for three titles.

Teams in individual sports such as track, swimming, wrestling and golf also earn points as a team in district and state events.

An individual team that places in the top six at a district event (or conference for swimming), will earn between 1 and 10 points.

Those teams also earn points for finishing in the top 15 at state, earning the same number of points as if they were a team sport advancing through the playoffs. Why the top 15? Because there are 16 teams in the state that win district titles in most team sports.

Individuals can also earn a point for each district title they win, for earning all-state honors (top 15 in cross country and golf, top eight in track, swimming and tennis and top six for wrestling) and 50 points for each state championship. Each team earns a point if a member qualifies for state individually.

The total number of points earned by individual teams is also divided by the number of sports fielded by a school.

All three categories -- winning percentage, postseason points and individual points -- are equally important.

This past season there were seven schools that won a state title, four more made a championship game while 15 in all had at least one team reach the state final four. But three schools that won a title and nine that had at least one reach the state final four didn't crack the top five.

The team with the most individual points, nearly 20 more than any other school, cracked the top five but was held back by having just one district champion in team sports and a .515 winning percentage.

One larger school reached a state championship game but didn't have any other teams win a district title and had an overall winning percentage of .407 to finish 27th.

Schools that play a weaker regular-season schedule tend to not perform well in the postseason, missing out on points. While a tougher schedule might bring down the winning percentage, a postseason run also increases a school's overall winning percentage up to 16.7 points.

Individual points are helpful but don't hold back smaller schools as three of the top eight didn't field any individual sports.

While it's not a perfect formula, it does a pretty good job of ranking the schools based on performance and giving large and small schools a chance to compete on a level playing field.

Here are the standings:

NO SCHOOL POINTS WIN PCT. PLAYOFFS IND. PTS INDEX

1 Notre Dame 618 67.26 39.44 24.50 131.20

2 Bell City 253 52.58 66.67 0.00 119.24

3 Poplar Bluff 518 51.56 5.50 58.71 115.77

4 St. Vincent 402 47.22 26.67 39.00 112.89

5 Jackson 412 62.45 17.78 23.75 103.97

6 Advance 230 56.88 32.50 14.33 103.71

7 Naylor 230 54.95 43.75 -- 98.70

8 Bernie 165 75.37 22.50 -- 97.87

9 Saxony Lutheran 317 61.26 35.00 1.57 97.83

10 Malden 236 64.29 24.17 9.00 97.45

11 Portageville 221 71.01 25.00 -- 96.01

12 Kennett 307 56.89 35.00 1.67 93.55

13 Scott Central 257 51.81 41.00 0.00 92.81

14 Kelly 243 54.81 1.67 35.60 92.08

15 Dexter 270 60.12 10.00 21.67 91.79

16 Perryville 280 61.03 26.88 1.00 88.90

17 New Madrid Central 224 56.25 25.83 3.25 85.33

18 Bloomfield 157 51.16 25.00 6.00 82.16

19 Scott City 245 47.92 31.67 1.75 81.33

20 Greenville 98 71.63 5.00 0.50 77.13

21 Neellyville 114 63.85 10.00 -- 73.85

22 Gideon 105 60.20 11.25 -- 71.45

23 Sikeston 156 52.61 5.50 12.00 70.11

24 Clearwater 81 55.56 4.00 5.00 64.56

25 Van Buren 81 46.28 0.00 17.50 63.78

26 Oran 89 51.28 6.00 4.00 61.28

27 Cape Central 234 40.71 15.50 4.75 60.96

28 Woodland 81 53.17 1.00 5.75 59.92

29 East Carter 74 52.73 5.00 0.50 58.23

30 Clarkton 76 50.57 6.25 0.00 56.82

31 Cooter 56 51.38 1.00 -- 52.38

32 Leopold 59 49.00 2.50 -- 51.50

33 Chaffee 76 41.12 5.00 3.33 49.45

34 Hayti 53 45.45 0.00 4.00 49.45

35 Senath-Hornserville 53 47.41 1.00 1.00 49.41

36 Meadow Heights 48 47.06 0.00 0.50 47.56

37 Twin Rivers 60 39.86 4.00 -- 43.86

38 Delta-Deering 44 43.75 0.00 -- 43.75

39 Holcomb 43 43.43 0.00 -- 43.43

40 Caruthersville 57 36.07 1.43 3.67 41.16

41 Doniphan 42 40.21 0.00 0.67 40.87

42 Charleston 59 36.30 2.86 1.50 40.65

43 Ellington 45 37.17 1.00 1.50 39.67

44 East Prairie 41 37.50 0.00 1.50 39.00

45 South Pemiscot 37 36.51 0.00 -- 36.51

46 Puxico 35 35.26 0.00 -- 35.26

47 Campbell 34 33.66 0.00 -- 33.66

48 North Pemiscot 28 28.38 0.00 -- 28.38

49 Marquand 28 28.00 0.00 0.00 28.00

50 Zalma 31 23.81 0.00 1.75 25.56

51 Oak Ridge 30 20.99 0.00 4.50 25.49

52 Southland 24 23.53 0.00 -- 23.53

53 Richland 21 21.05 0.00 -- 21.05

54 Delta 18 15.52 0.00 0.50 16.02

55 Risco 11 11.11 0.00 -- 11.11