Here's why there is still hope

Exactly four weeks ago tonight, I watched from a Busch Stadium seat pitcher Kip Wells get 50% of his 2007 win total.

In picking up victory number two, Wells went seven innings and allowed only five hits. As poorly as things have gone for Kip since that night -- only a Braden Looper injury may have spared his banishment to the bullpen -- the Cardinals have lost zero ground to the Milwaukee Brewers over that time.

After Wells' victory, the Cardinals were six games back on the loss side to the Milwaukee Brewers. St. Louis enters tonight's rubber game against Kansas City an identical six back in the loss column to the front-running Milwaukee squad.

So if nothing's changed, why does it feel so different?

The obvious reason is health. David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds and Yadier Molina were all healthy, or at least playing, a month ago. Now all reside on a crowded disabled list alongside pitchers Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Looper, Josh Kinney, and outfielder Preston Wilson.

With the exception of Mulder, who wasn't expected back until later this year, that's seven players sitting on the sidelines the Cardinals thought would be contributing at this point in the season when they started spring training.

Yet, for all that's gone wrong, I would argue, the glass is at least half full as we near the end of June.

Here's why.

The biggest advantage is the schedule. The Cardinals finish interleague play tonight. There'll be more no more thrashings in the land of the designated hitter. A victory tonight would leave the Cardinals with an interleague record of 6-9.

Things won't get an easier over the next week. The Cardinals welcome the Phillies in for three games and head to New York for a four game set with the Mets.

But after that stretch, there will be 86 games left -- still more than half the season to go (isn't it amazing just how long the baseball season is?). Of those 86 games, 47 of them, or 55% will be against National League Central teams. That's a lot of weak opponents, and plenty of time to make up ground. (Note: total corrected from 88 to 86).

There are other reasons for optimism. Every day that passes means one day closer to Carpenter's return. He'll throw his second bullpen session today.

Of those eight guys on the D.L., two are finished for the season -- Kinney and Wilson -- and it's hard to gauge what kind of contribution Mulder can make. Pencil in Looper and Edmonds as question marks as well. But the other three, Carpenter, along with Eckstein and Molina, are key.

Get that trio healthy and playing, get bonus contributions from Mulder, Edmonds (or Rick Ankiel), and cross your fingers that either Troy Percival or Tomo Ohka has something left to contribute.

I'll admit it's not the greatest recipe for a division title. But there's still hope. And for a beaten down, banged up, pissed off team, that's saying something.