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The case for not acquiring BuehrlePosted Tuesday, June 26, 2007, at 8:26 AM
Update: The Sun-Time says the Sox are the verge of signing Buehrle to an extension. Ken Rosenthal's headline makes it sound like he's a little skeptical.
It looks like Rosenthal's headline was prophetic. "Nothing's going on," says Buehrle's agent.
In his column today, Bryan Burwell says the "chatter around the league" is that the Cardinals have offered Anthony Reyes, John Rodriguez and a minor league prospect to the White Sox for pitcher Mark Buehrle. Burwell throws out the name of Double-A catcher Bryan Anderson and says if that's indeed the trio, the deal is worth it. Assuming the White Sox would do that deal, does it make sense for the Cardinals? Long term, I'm not so sure. Let's see. A young pitcher, a journeyman ballplayer and a young catching prospect for an established lefthander. Sound familiar? There's no question that Buehrle would provide a boost to the rotation and if things don't work out in Chicago, the St. Charles native would love to play in St. Louis. But at what cost? In nice round figures, acquiring Buehrle would cost the Cardinals $10 million a year (and that's too low). But look at the 2008 salaries. Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Jason Isringhausen will cost the team $60 million next season (assuming the club exercises Izzy's option). Throw in Buehrle and you're looking at $70 million + for seven players. Burwell says the Cardinals "have enough bats to win the NL Central." Anyone who's watched this team get shutout by the Philadelphia bullpen on Sunday and score one run against retread Jorge Sosa on Monday night knows to be skeptical of that claim. Yes, the team is banged up but I'm not sure how much they can count on Edmonds the rest of this year - much less 2008 (extending his deal by a year really hurts the maneuverability of this team). Rolen is putting up numbers (four home runs and 30 RBI) that many teams get out of middle infielders. And the Cardinals are on the hook for his salary through 2010. In addition to the struggles of Edmonds and Rolen, Adam Kennedy has been a bust at second base (now hitting .206) and the Cardinals are facing the prospect of getting a new shortstop next season - David Eckstein will be a free agent. That's question marks at four different positions. Sans Buehrle, the 2008 rotation shapes up this way:
With good health and a good offense, the Cardinals could have success with that rotation. So long term (which is the only way acquiring a Buehrle makes any sense) what does this team really need - another starter or another bat? Also remember, the Cardinals are playing with limited chips. If/when Reyes gets dealt, the big-league ready cupboard is bare. Don't get me wrong. I would love to see Buehrle playing in St. Louis. I just don't think it makes sense for this team under current conditions. Buehrle to the Cards? I think I'll pass. Postscript: Check out all the latest Buehrle trade rumors here. The guy looks to be in super high demand. Yet another reason the Cards should pass - they'll have to overpay both in talent and money - to get him. Comments Showing comments in chronological order [Show most recent comments first] |
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You are nuts. You cannot compare Reyes to Haren. Haren had success in the big leagues and was equipped with the tools and the pitches to become a number one starter. Wainwright would be a better comparison as he has shown flashes of brilliance. I think trading for Buehrle is a great idea and we know he will sign in St. Louis. We are only on the hook for Mulder for one more year and if he pitches well, I would resign him too. Maroth is a good 5th starter allowing you to have 6 options which as we have seen this year, would not be a bad thing.
As far as offense, Ankiel needs a shot and Duncan has shown he can hit for power. I think Rolen's numbers are a fluke, but I will take them with his defense. Resigning Eckstein will not cost as much as most think.
I like a top three of Carp, Buehrle and Wainwright down the stretch this year. Maroth and Looper fill out the rest of the rotation with Mulder being a wild card.
Make the trade...although I would put money on Boston getting him. They will offer more than the Cardinals will.
Here were their age 23 seasons in Triple A.
Haren
Hits per 9 innings - 9.56
HR/9 - 1.34
BB/9 - 2.32
K/9 - 10.55
WHIP - 1.32
Reyes
Hits per 9 - 7.34
HR/9 - 0.91
BB/9 - 2.38
K/9 - 9.51
WHIP - 1.08
Very similar. Haren had slightly more strikeouts, but otherwise Reyes was equal or better in every category.
Haren's career big league record was 6-10 when the Cardinals traded him.
But Reyes wasn't the focus of the post or to regret putting him in the deal. It was to point out he's their only bargaining chip and they have longterm pressing needs in other areas.
You can write off Rolen's numbers as a fluke - but we're approaching the halfway point of the season and his on-base + slugging percentage is .728.
The guy appears to be either hurt or he's simply no longer the player he once was. Either way, it's not good news for the Cardinals.
You put Reyes with a different pitching coach and I bet he would be better then what he is now. Isn't the arugment between him and Duncan over the two seam v the four seam fastball. Reyes wants to throw the 4 seam but Duncan wants the other? How much better he would be, I don't know but he is a pretty good talent still. I doubt that Burhle is a lock to sign wherever he is traded too, and if you think he's going to take the "hometown discount" to stay in STL, you're crazy, and everything I have read is that the WS are unwilling to give a suiter a 72 hour window to work out an extenstion.
I was not talking about minor league numbers, but lajor league success. Dig a little deeper and you will see Haren's first 20 starts in the majors have been much better than Reyes'.
themovieman13: Harens 19 total MLB starts (he was traded before getting to 20) versus Reyes first 19 starts (which ended with his first start this year).
Haren:
19 games, 6 Wins, 9 Losses, 98 IP, 5.33 ERA, 62 K's, 31 BBs
Reyes:
19 games, 6 Wins, 10 Losses, 96.2 IP, 4.93 ERA, 80 K's, 36 BBs
Looks like a pretty even match, given Reyes advantage in strikeout rate he would have appeared to be the better prospect based the first MLB starts.
I would take the trade. I think Reyes is about bust anyway. I am surprised people are not calling for his head in the same way that they are calling for Kip Wells. Both have similar records. At least Kip Wells is listening to Duncan. Reyes is still in his cocky attitude that he can do it his way. His way will get him pounded. Duncan knows that as well as any other pitching coach. Watch for Reyes to go the way of Bud Smith - in to obscurity.
J-Rod is a goner as well. He was a flash in the pan power hitter that is destined for at least a September call up. Get him out of there so that TLR will have to call up Ankiel (there will be no other outfield options. That is if weak Schumacher doesn't get the call back up).
The only piece that I am concerned about is the prospect. As Mike has shown us the last couple of posts, they can really come back to burn us.
With our current rotation, an addition of Buerhle's caliber would be a welcomed deal. Pooper is not a starter. He needs to go back to long relief with Wells. I like this rotation:
1. Carp
2. Buerhle
3. Maroth
4. Mulder
5. Wainwright
To the infield: I like Eckstein. He gives me the warm fuzzies when he runs his famous, "...now they call me MVP." But I would want a better fielding shortstop with some power. Can anyone say, "Tejada?"
Rolen is great, but lets get a younger version of him. I am not sure who yet. But if we traded Rolen, we are looking Spiezio playing 3rd. We all saw on Mon. that he is not a reliable option.
Yeah, the payroll is pretty heavy with the players that are soaking it up. But thats what you need to compete in the big leagues.
But will DeWitt cash out? Nah. He would rather use that money to buy Luhnow a new house.
mattstl77: You bash Reyes and then have Wainwright in you rotation. The biggest difference between those two guys this year is Wainwright has gotten twice as much run support and Reyes has been incredibly ineffective with runners on base. Neither of those things are likely to remain true in the long run. Looking at the underlying numbers in Defense Independent Component ERA Wainwright is barely better at 4.26 to 4.38 for Reyes. Wainwright allows more baserunners & doesn't strike out nearly as many hitters as Reyes. Sure as a fan I'd rather see Wainwright pitch instead of Reyes tommorrow, but in a few months down the road or next season I see no evidence that Reyes will be any worse than Wainwright.
Dave Duncan has a wonderful track record at fixing old pitchers off the scrap heap, but he sure hasn't done much with any of the young talent. Besides Bud Smith & Danny Haren, you also have Alan Benes, Rick Ankiel, Jose Jimenez, & Manny Aybar. If Reyes or Wainwright add to the list it looks even more grim. Matt Morris is the only bright spot in over a decade of Duncan coaching young starting pitchers.
The main difference between Wainwright and Reyes is the realized potential. I think Wainwright is willing to take advice and criticism so that he can become a better starter. You can't say that about Reyes. He wants to do it his way and that is why he got sent back down to the AAA.
Nil, you failed to make the comparison between Wells and Reyes. Sure, Reyes did not get the run support. Big whoop...that is the hand he was dealt. But he is the one who got himself an astronomical ERA, not the lack of offense. I don't know the exact numbers, but Wells doesn't get the run support either.
However, I am more of a fan of trading for proven ball players than coveting players that have yet to prove themselves.
Wells isn't comparable to Reyes, Reyes still has age on his side, a solid K rate, and the potential to become significantly better. Kip Wells is 30 and his best performance are very likely in the past, so he's not worth a team wasting much time on as he is what he is.
Reyes did indeed get himself the fat ERA, but if you look at the actual number of hits & walks he has given up (like the DICE numbers I gave) his real ERA is far higher than should be expected. Letting 43% of base runners score is mostly his fault, but thats a number that is unsustainable even by the worst of MLB pitchers so I think you have to chalk a little bit of that to bad luck.
You can chalk Wells record and ERA as bad luck. As well as Kennedy (who got his 1,000th hit on Mon.).
Time is on his side, but Wells has the experience to get himself out of the funk. Remember Ankiel was in a funk as well and now he is tearing it up at the AAA level.
You do make a good point about Duncan being better with vets than young pitchers. Who was the bullpen coach last year? Was it Marty Mason? Whoever it was, he was good with the young guys. You had a great bullpen of Kinney, Thompson, Wainwright, Flores, and Johnson. Who were the older guys that didn't fare very well? It was Pooper and Sosa.
Even if Reyes is on the upswing, I would still take Buerhle over him anyday. In a trade, I would always go for the better player. Who would you take in these scenarios:
a. Rolen or Wright?
b. Eckstein or Furcal?
c. Kennedy/Miles or Utley?
d. Pujols or Fielder?
e. Molina or Mauer?
f. Duncan or Vlad?
g. Edmonds or Soriano?
h. Beltran or Encarnacion?
Of course, these are silly scenarios. But if we were playing in a fantasy draft, you would always go for the better player. I think it should be the same for the Cards. Who cares if our prospects heat up? You know there is a smaller margin of error with proven ballplayers.
I can't argue that Reyes or any of our other young players are better than Buehrle. Fantasy drafts are one thing, but in reality all non-Yankee reality teams limit their payrolls. As a pretend GM I'd rather have 10-15 million extra to chase free agents in the offseason rather than paying it to Buehrle. Maybe because I'd easily sign Zambrano over Buehrle and not have to loose anything of value (well ok, it does costs a couple draft picks as compensation for Type A free agents but thats pretty cheap).
Oh, and on your pairs of players I'm not sure why you adding d. Pujols or Fielder? I think every almost everyone fantasy or not would take Pujols talent & track record. Fielder is fun to watch though.
Bingo. If the Cards sign Buehrle, they're locked into a long-term deal that greatly reduces their flexibility.
If they were in first place and he was the final piece to another World Series team, I'd feel differently. But they're 9.5 back and in third place. No need to wreck the payroll for this guy.
I'd make the deal yesterday!
I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals have offered Reyes and Rodriguez. The hang-up, in my opinion, is the prospect. The Cardinals should not make Anderson part of this deal.
Anderson, an improving catcher, is third in the Texas League in hitting at .326. His OBP is .387. What makes these numbers impressive is Anderson's age. He's just 20 1/2, much younger than most players in the TL. In fact, the median age of the top 15 hitters in the league is nearly 25, and Anderson is nearly 2 years younger than any other hitter on the list. Right now he is a line drive machine, and several scouts expect that his power will develop as he gets older.
Of course, he might not continue to develop. But he might also be the next Ted Simmons.
Even with Buehrle, it's not likely the Cardinals overtake the Brewers this year. Giving up a prospect like Anderson, in addition to Reyes, is just too much in my opinion.
If Buehrle's available in the off-season (and he apparently has given indications to White Sox GM Ken Williams that he has no intention of signing a long-term deal with another club), the Cardinals could make their pitch then and possibly get him without losing Anderson and Reyes.
But they had better be prepared to spend. Even with the so-called hometown discount, Buehrle will be looking for at least 5 years and probably at least $60 million. And there will be serious competition. A writer from Chicago told Miklasz yesterday that the White Sox fully intend to pursue Buehrle after the season and will be very aggressive.
By the way, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus says Buehrle does not project especially well over the next few years (the projections are based on pitchers of the past of comparable age, innings pitched, performance, etc.). He has serious reservations about signing Buehrle to a long-term deal.
The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting this morning that Buehrle and the White Sox are serious about extending Buehrle's contract. He is said to be off the trade table for the time being.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/...
One point that is never made in these "Haren vs. Reyes" comparisons is that Haren doesn't iron his hat....certainly a point in his favor!