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| Monday, September 8, 2008 |
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Three is good, but four is a LOT better
Posted Friday, July 6, 2007, at 11:38 AM<< Previous | Read comments | Respond | Email link | Next >>
After the Cardinals game last night, I could have sworn I heard Al Hrabosky make a comment to the effect that it was only the second time all year that the team had won a game by the score of 3-2 (or maybe it was win a game scoring three runs or less).
Either way, I was curious to see if he was right. He couldn't have been more wrong.
The Cardinals have won more games this season by scoring three runs than any other number. The chart is small and hard to read but what it represents are total number of victories for a given number of runs scored.
As the highest bar on the chart shows, eight times this season, the Cardinals have won a game by scoring three runs. They haven't won a contest all season by scoring any less.
In fact, the Cardinals swept an entire series against Pittsburgh back in April scoring three runs per game. Two of those contests were 3-2 scores. The Cardinals also beat the Astros back in May 3-2. Just like last night, Adam Wainwright was the winner of the game and Jason Isringhausen got the save.
Seven times this season, St. Louis has won by scoring 10 runs (or more). Both five runs and eight runs have each produced five wins.
Don't bet on St. Louis scoring six runs in a game. The Cardinals have scored that amount only twice all season, both occurring over a three-day span in early June. They won one and lost one.
On the flip side, the Cardinals are 0-27 when they score two runs or less. They've been shutout eight times already and managed to score only a single run on 12 separate occasions.
When the Cardinals score four runs or more, their record is 31-8. Is there a better argument for acquiring another bat?
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I couldn't agree more about needing another bat, especially when our 2nd best hitter (Duncan) has to sit out 30% of the games because the opposing pitcher happens to be left-handed. All the talk of Mark Buerhle is misguided.
Another slow news day, huh?
Info on the possible new ballpark in Cape from Bill Lee, commissioner of the Frontier League:
www.whiteyball.com
aandzdad:
Now that is news. Too bad Kevin didn't think of emailing the president of the Frontier League. Of course, that would have brought a little bit of reality to a situation where it permits more dreamers.
I think that's a helpful analysis. Another thing to look at is how the Cardinals have fared when allowing a certain number of runs.
For example, the Cardinals are 30-9 when allowing opponents 4 or fewer runs. In these well-pitched games, therefore, better hitting would have produced a maximum of 9 more victories.
Looking at the other side of things, through Saturday's game, the Cardinals have lost 9 times when they've scored 4 or more runs. Better pitching in these games would have resulted in a maximum of 9 more wins.
You can also compare the success of the Cardinals and the success of their opponents when scoring X amount of runs. For example, the Cardinals are 4-3 when they score 4 runs. Their opponents are 6-2 when scoring 4 runs. That suggests that Cardinals need to improve their pitching.
At other run amounts, the Cardinals seem to be doing a bit better than their opponents, which indicates that the Cardinals perhaps should focus on improving their hitting.
But overall it's a very close call. Adding another bat would help. But probably not much more than adding another arm.
I just hope they don't do anything that messes with '08 and beyond.