| Monday, September 8, 2008 |
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Relax, it won't last long
Posted Monday, August 6, 2007, at 11:44 AM<< Previous | Read comments | Respond | Email link | Next >>
I happened to be watching ESPN on Saturday night when Barry Bonds hit career home run number 755.
The reaction was interesting. More fans in San Diego cheered than booed. Commissioner Bud Selig was there. He eventually stood up, put his hands in his pockets, and acted like he didn't know what to do -- I thought for a second he was going to yawn.
Maybe he wasn't bored, just confused or embarrassed. Don't worry, Bud. No matter what Barry does, there's a reasonable chance that his soon-to-be record holding status will be short-lived.
On the same day that Bonds tied Hank Aaron, Alex Rodriguez hit his 500th career home run. Here's how the two stack-up when compared by age (totals through Saturday)
A-Rod has 166 more home runs than Bonds did at the same age. And the gap -- at least temporarily - is only going to grow. Bonds completed his age 31 season (his age when the season began) more than a decade ago. A-Rod still has nearly two full months to pad his totals.
So how did a guy with "only" 334 home runs after 11 big league seasons find himself on the verge of breaking the all-time home run record?
Check out Barry's totals starting 1997. Along the way, a slugger was transformed into Superman.
Check out his home run frequency in the last column. Interesting to note that the year after the McGwire and Sosa home run chase of 1998, Bonds really began to dial it up.
In his first 11 seasons in the big leagues, Barry hit a home run every 16.6 at-bats. Over his last 11 years, that frequency has increased -- a dinger every 10 at-bats. His rate was in the single digits for six straight years.
At his first-half career pace, Bonds would have hit 255 home runs since 1997 -- great career totals, for sure -- but well short of record breaking status.
So is A-Rod's a lock to break Bonds' record? There are no guarantees but you have to like his chances as long as he stays healthy.
Let's say Barry plays one more season and between now and then he hits another 25 home runs. He would walk away from the game with a career total of 780.
If A-Rod can average 500 at-bats (he's averaged almost 600 the last 11 seasons) and continue to hit homers at his current career rate -- the Yankees third baseman should pass that mark in the year 2015.
Babe Ruth hit home run number 714 in 1935. That mark lasted nearly 40 years until Aaron broke the record in 1974. Hank's 755 has stood the test of time for three decades.
With good luck and good health on the part of A-Rod, Barry's status as the all-time home-run king will last all of eight years. And if he doesn't do it, there are other young sluggers in the game, including Albert Pujols, whose pace isn't far behind.
Barry's time on the throne may end up being the shortest of all.
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Here is a great article about Bonds's "hitting machine."
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/...
How do walks figure in to the official at bats?
walks do not count towards AB's. I like that everyone assumes AROD is going to easily break the record. Here is the problem, he is making a lot of money and has never had a siginifcant injury. The odds of him having an injury the older her gets, increase. Plus, I doubt he will hit home runs at a better pace the older he gets like our friend, Barry. However, if he averages 4o homers over the next 6 seasons (assuming he maintains his career hr/ab ratio), he gets there. I think he will do it, but I do not see it as a slam dunk like everyone else. Only time will tell.
Here is an interesting thought. Imagine Bonds and Arod playing for the Angels next year, which is very likely. With Arod and Vlad protecting him in the lineup, his walks will go way down and he could play a couple more years at DH, easily hitting 30-40 homeruns per year. Even Johan Santana would pee in his pants having to face a 3-4-5 combo of Arod-Bonds-Vlad. And with Figgins and Cabrera hitting ahead of them and Matthews behind them...well that is just scary.
How can you say thats "very likely"?
..since when did Major League baseball turn into slowpitch softball with all these long ball hitters . why not raise the mound again ? has the art of pitching inside been forgotten ?
Bonds and Rodriguez have been rumored to go to LA for some time now. And they have a lot pf payroll flexibility next year. If Bonds continues to play, it will be in the AL and he wants to stay on the West Coast. LA has made it no secret that they want Arod. Very likely might not be the right term, but very possible is.
Unrelated News Item
Tuesday morning--Jerry Hodges singled in two runs with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to give the Cape (Plaza Tire) Capahas a 4-3 victory over the Nevada Griffons in the NBC World Series in Wichita. The Capahas go to 3-1 and stay alive in the tournament.
In yesterday's action, Cardinals 4th Round pick Kyle Russell broke out of a slump with 3 hits for the Santa Barbara Foresters, the defending champs.
Wednesday morning--Caps pound out 20 hits and hang on to defeat Beatrice, Nebraska, 12-9. They play tomorrow against the Santa Barbara-Park City, Kansas winner.