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Pujols, jackpots, Cards & Cubs
Posted Monday, August 20, 2007, at 9:03 AM<< Previous | Read comments | Respond | Email link | Next >>
Cards, Cubs and the coming battles
Farm-systems vs. checkbooks When Carlos Zambrano signed his five-year, $91.5 million contract on Friday, Albert Pujols had to be a happy man. With an average annual salary of $18.3 million for Zambrano, there are only four higher paydays in all of baseball. Average Salary
Below Zambrano, there are another six players who make at $17 million a year. None of them is named Albert. While it may not happen immediately, that's going to change. Pujols' seven-year $100 million contract expires after the 2010 season (with a club option for 2011). Assuming the Cards exercise that option, Albert will finish this deal at the ripe old age of 31. What then? Barring a significant hometown discount, the Cardinals may be looking at possibly doubling the current salary of their star first baseman if they want to keep him in St. Louis. If that sounds out of line, consider this. Speculation is rampant that Alex Rodriguez will follow the example of J.D. Drew (both represented by Scott Boras) and opt out of his contract at the end of this season. Expect a record-breaking deal to follow. While not specifically mentioning A-Rod, Boras is already floating the idea of a $30-million per-year contract. If A-Rod gets that sort of deal, what does that make Albert worth? Rodriguez received his first big payday by testing the free-agent waters. Pujols hasn't had that opportunity -- yet. $100 million got the Cardinals seven years of Pujols in the last deal. They'll be fortunate to get him for four years at that price the next time around.
On the same day that Zambrano hit the jackpot for the Cubs, Braden Looper pitched in Wrigley Field and Jeff Suppan took the mound for Milwaukee. One is, of course, a current Cardinal and the other a former one. Both of them, though, speak to the success St. Louis has had in recent years in exploiting opportunities, getting value for their dollar, and not overpaying in the market. Looper is 10-10 with an ERA of 4.98 and a VORP of 9.2. ($) Suppan is 8-10 with an ERA of 4.89 and a VORP of 10.9. ($) The numbers are similar but the contracts are not. The Cardinals are paying Looper $4.5 million this year, the middle season of a three-year, $13.5 million contract. Suppan is getting $6 million this season, the first-year of a four-year $42 million deal. In 2010, when Suppan is 35, Milwaukee will pay him $12.5 million. When done right, beer budgets trump champagne tastes. That type of discipline is going to be tested in the years to come. The landscape of the NL Central is changing. Bernie touched on this today -- the Cubs have suddenly become the Yankees of the Midwest -- spending money like drunken Bleacher Bums. Zambrano's contract is only the latest example of a spending spree by the Cubs. The other prominent example took place this past offseason when Chicago signed Alfonso Soriano to an 8-year, $136 million contract. That's $227 million spent on two players. In 2008 alone, the Cubs will have committed $65 million to just four players. The Soriano deal highlights the differences in philosophy between the Cubs and the Cards. The left fielder in Chicago, currently injured, has a slugging percentage of .511. That happens to be the identical slugging percentage of Chris Duncan. The Cardinals left fielder, who makes $400,000 this year, has a higher on-base percentage. Since 1995, the Cardinals, along with the Houston Astros, have dominated the National League's Central Division. The two teams have combined for 10 of the 12 division titles and have made three World Series appearances. The Cubs can point to a 2003 division crown and a first place lead this year. Do the Soriano and Zambrano signings point to a new era in the NL Central? The Cubs will be getting new owners this offseason. A Wrigley Field vanity plate has some people speculating the pricetag could be a billion bucks (yes, billion with a b). That's a lot of Old Style. Whether Cubs fans will be toasting in celebration or drinking to drown their sorrows will depend greatly on their ace on the mound and their slugger in left. With a different brand in hand and rooting for the opposite results, fans in St. Louis will be watching as well. So too will management. Farm-system development vs. checkbook ownership. Let the battle begin. Comments Showing comments in chronological order [Show most recent comments first] |
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Do you really think that the Cubs success hinges on the production of Soriano and Zambrano?
Even though the Cubs are riddled with some good players, I don't think they will be as dominant as you suggest. I know that we can't put a lot of stock in this, but you need to bring in the intangibles. I am not talking about a curse. I am talking about how the Cubs have historically failed to come back after an injury or a rough stretch of games.
It will be interesting to see how dominant the Cubs will be. You know that I would like the club to invest in vets rather than the rookies. If the Cards continue to move toward the farm system method, you will get a team that will stink for several years and then all of the sudden they are good. Then they get to the postseason and fall apart. Why? Because they do not have the experience to pull it together. Vets know how to do it. Who knows...maybe this Cub team will put it together. But I wouldn't put any money on it.