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Astros and Cards - the one game difference

Posted Tuesday, August 28, 2007, at 7:54 AM

On Monday afternoon, the Houston Astros fired manager Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura. Much was made of the Astros recent slide to last place after making it to the World Series just two seasons ago.

What a difference a game can make.

The Astros and Cardinals have acted like identical twins the last few seasons, acting in tandem as the dominators of the NL Central.

The two teams met in the 2004 NLCS. The Cardinals won and proceeded to get swept in the World Series.

The two teams met in the 2005 NLCS. The Astros won and proceeded to get swept in the World Series.

In 2006, Houston won 82 games. The Cardinals won 83. Because of that single extra victory, St. Louis was awarded a division title and a playoff berth. A mediocre regular season was followed by inspired postseason play and St. Louis celebrated its first World Series title in 24 years.

If those 2006 records were reversed, my bet is that Garner and Purpura would be working for the Astros today. Regardless of how they would have done in the playoffs, the team would be coming off three straight postseason appearances. If Houston had won a title, maybe Roger Clemens retires or perhaps Andy Pettitte stays in Houston.

The dominos start to tumble in a hundred different directions.

As for the Cardinals, we'd be looking at a vastly different team today. Failing to make the playoffs last year, the front office would have probably performed a drastic makeover. Those generous contract extensions given to veteran players would have been out the window.

Whether we would be looking at a better or worse team today, we can only speculate. But we know this. Even one game in a long season of 162 can make a big difference -- not only in that season, but for years to come.

The Astros and Cardinals are proof of that.


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That is a very astute observation, Mr. Mike. I am still looking for the team that warms up in August & September. Maybe the Cards again, as they have definitely been playing more inspired ball of late. Watch out for the Reds... Go Cards!

-- Posted by Hugh M Bean on Tue, Aug 28, 2007, at 9:56 AM

BTW, old "Scrap Iron" won't be out of the mix for long.

-- Posted by Hugh M Bean on Tue, Aug 28, 2007, at 9:57 AM

Alas, Phil Garner, we hardly knew ye!

Very profound, Mike. Good analysis.

When one looks at Phil Garner's overall managerial record, he was consistent: For all three teams he managed, his first season (full 162-game schedule or no) ended up being his best in terms of winning percentage.

I will give Garner his props for orchestrating a pretty impressive surge in 2004 for the Astros. One game? How about one pitch? If Roger Clemens doesn't make one bad pitch to Scott Rolen, it's probably HOU in the '04 World Series, and Garner *might* still have a job.

Wonder if Drayton McLane can talk Larry Dierker back into the game, assuming his health could stand? .556 WP is pretty impressive for a guy who had no professional managerial experience.

-- Posted by ChickHafey on Tue, Aug 28, 2007, at 2:28 PM


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