Mizzou, Oklahoma and third down

At the end of the 2006 college football season, the Sunday Morning Quarterback blog ran a statistical analysis to determine which factors most correlated with winning. In looking across 11 stat categories, number one on the list in the Big 12 turned out to be third-down efficiency.

The team that did best at converting third-down opportunities won the game almost 79% of the time.

Curious about that stat, I decided to see where Mizzou ranked this season.

What do you know -- the Tigers are number one -- not just in the conference, but in all of college football, converting an impressive 59% of third-down chances.

There are only eight teams in the country converting at a 50% or greater clip. Three of them are in the Big 12. In addition to Mizzou, there's Texas Tech at number two (54.2%) and Texas A&M at number seven (50.5%). Both are future Missouri opponents.

This week's opponent, Oklahoma, is tied for number 17, converting third downs 46.7% of the time.

Number three on the Sunday Morning QB list is total offense and here again Mizzou has the edge over the Sooners. The Tigers are averaging 556.6 yards per game, second in the conference only to Texas Tech. Oklahoma is fourth at 482.2.

But other factors favor Oklahoma. Number two on list was yards per pass. Mizzou gains an average of 7.54 yards per pass attempt. Oklahoma, while throwing the ball considerably less, averages 9.79.

Those are the only three stat categories that had at least a 70% correlation with winning.

The Massey Ratings have Mizzou at number 5 -- Oklahoma at number 13. But, of course, the Sooners are at home this weekend, an advantage in any football game. Oddsmakers now have Missouri as a 10 ½ point underdog.

So Oklahoma is a heavy favorite at home. No surprise there, given the track record of this series. But keep your eye on third-down chances. Mizzou's high powered offense will be up against an OU defense ranked second in the conference. That conversion rate, along with turnover margin(number four on the Sunday Morning QB list) should go a long way in determining if the Tigers are deserving of the national spotlight.

---

Postscript: And speaking of the national spotlight, Chase Daniel is in it. Over at CBS Sportsline, Dennis Dodd ranks Daniel at number three in his Heisman Watch, only beyond fellow quarterbacks Matt Ryan of Boston College and Tim Tebow of Florida.

Sports Illustrated's Gene Menez has Daniel at number five.

ESPN's Pat Forde has him at number two.

Just imagine what a big game and a victory over Oklahoma would do for his chances.