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College football recruiting - myths and reality
Posted Monday, January 28, 2008, at 11:52 AM
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Coming off a 1979 season in which they finished with a 7-5 record and a victory in the Hall of Fame Bowl, the Missouri Tigers signed 23 high school and junior college recruits to letters of intent. Fourteen of the 23 hailed from the Show-Me state, including three players from Southeast Missouri: Kerry Holloway and Kip Hamby from Cape Central and running back Darrel Williams from East Prairie.

Missouri recruits: 'better than last year' read the headline of the Columbia Missourian back on February 24, 1980. (PDF here -- article on Page 8).

The "better than last year" quote came from Joe Teranova at Scholastic Coach magazine, one of the few publications back in those days to dedicate time to the national recruiting scene.

While the Mizzou recruiting class may have indeed been better than the previous year and the Tigers did a wonderful job of signing in-state talent that winter, the seeds of a free fall had just been planted. In 1984, the senior year for any of the redshirt freshman from that class, the Tigers finished with a record of 3-7-1, the first of 13 consecutive losing seasons.

A lot has changed in the more than quarter century since those players made their collegiate decision. Coverage of high school athletes has exploded, Internet recruiting sites are ubiquitous and message boards breathlessly report every visit and commitment.

Sunday featured a front-page sports story in the Post-Dispatch on the current crop of Mizzou recruits.

"Missouri is trying to put the final touches on what is shaping up to be the best recruiting class in coach Gary Pinkel's seven seasons at Missouri, wrote Graham Watson.

"And Pinkel has done most of it without leaving the state."

That's not exactly true.

While Mizzou has done well defending the borders -- eight of the top 12 players in the state are headed to Columbia -- 13 of their 24 total commitments-to-date currently listed at Rivals played their high school football in Texas.

And that's a good thing. A nationally ranked team needs to grow its recruiting base, and few areas of the country are more fertile than the Lone Star State.

It's amazing what a 12-2 season, a Cotton Bowl victory and a kid from the Dallas suburbs as a Heisman Finalist can do for a program's reputation (as a comparison, the 2007 signing class had only five members from Texas.)

But before we get too carried away with recruits and pecking orders, it's important to remember that the Tigers achieved that Top 5 12-2 season without a single recruiting class ranked higher than 28th in the country.

What a wonderful tribute to coach Pinkel and staff.

The Sunday Morning Quarterback recently put together a fascinating analysis comparing the link between off-field recruiting and on-field success. What they found was a mixed bag -- some teams underachieved, others overachieved and a third group, just like Goldilocks' porridge, got it just right.

It should come as no surprise that Pinkel's Tigers fit in that first group. Here's how the Big 12 shaped up over the past six seasons. The recruiting rankings and team records are from 2002-2007 (only BCS conference schools were considered).

Sunday Morning Quarterback Rankings -- 2002 to 2007

Win. % RankTeamRecordWin %Rivals RankDifference
3Oklahoma54-13.8063-
4Texas48-12.8007+3
21Texas Tech34-24.58646+25
28Missouri31-27.53536+8
32Nebraska32-32.50017-15
37K-State27-29.46638+1
42Okla. State25-31..44623-19
43Colorado29-37.43934-9
47Texas A&M24-34.41414-33
51Kansas20-33.37750-1
55Iowa State18-38.32152-3
65Baylor8-42.16060-5

Over the past six years, no team in the Big 12 North has performed better than the Tigers. With a Rivals recruting rank of 36, Mizzou had the 28th best winning percentage over the past six years. That +8 difference is the best performance in the North with only Texas Tech "overachieving" at a greater rate.

Tigers fans can be encouraged by these results. It would seem that Mizzou does a better job of finding recruits out of the spotlight and/or doing a better job of maximizing the talent they have to manage.

With seemingly even better talent on the way, we're about to test this thesis. My expectations are high. I expect good things to happen.


Comments
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Pinkel's strong suit has long been his evaluation of talent. As you suggest, he and his staff have done a very good job of finding athletes not rated among the Top 200 nationally.

The athletic ability of his teams has improved year by year, and I am confident Mizzou will continue to find under-the-radar athletes.

The one thing that concerns me about Mizzou's recruiting is the lack of commitments we got from the St. Louis Metro East (Illinois side of the river). Mizzou cannot afford to cede that talent-rich area to Illinois' Zook.

-- Posted by unclegrubworm on Wed, Jan 30, 2008, at 9:28 AM

So how did those three 1979 southeast recruits do in their Mizzou careers?

-- Posted by librule on Mon, Jan 28, 2008, at 5:08 PM

So how did those three 1979 southeast recruits do in their Mizzou careers?

-- Posted by librule on Mon, Jan 28, 2008, at 5:08 PM


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