| Thursday, August 28, 2008 |
|
Opening day and beyond: Just how good are the 2008 Cards?
Posted Tuesday, April 1, 2008, at 11:58 AM<< Previous | Respond | Email link | Next >>
For a team picked to finish somewhere between mediocrity and the bottom of the barrel, we can say for this certainty about the 2008 St. Louis Cardinals: they looked pretty good for about three innings on Monday, didn't they?
The catch by outfielder Skip Schumaker, the bases-loaded double by Rick Ankiel to drive in a couple, Yadier Molina going the opposite way to drive in another two, Albert Pujols being Albert Pujols. But thanks to the rain, it's as if it never happened.
Many of the players and fans may like to pretend the 2007 season never happened but tonight on the Busch Stadium mound will be a vivid reminder. Kip Wells gets the start for the Colorado Rockies. In case you need a refresher, it's the same pitcher that went 7-17 with a 5.70 ERA for the Cardinals last season. Let's hope he picks up right where he left off.
I'm torn over this 2008 edition of Cardinals baseball. There are signs this should be a better club than last year but other things of the team are still troubling.
One thing that amuses me - all these references to the "kids" and the "youth" of the Cardinals. While there are certainly new faces to be seen in Busch Stadium this year (and more are on the way) - this is not a club that exactly smells like teen spirit.
As proof, I offer evidence contained in the Sunday St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
Average age:
* 2004 Cardinals - 30.7 * 2005 Cardinals - 29.7 * 2006 Cardinals - 29.6 * 2007 Cardinals - 29.6
And the New Kids on the Block - the Baby Birds of 2008? The average is 30.2 years of age. Hard to get younger when your pitching staff features 39-year old Russ Springer and 38-year old Ron Villone.
The youth movement may be coming, but right now, it's more perception than reality. And with a skipper in charge who's mantra is frequently the 60's generation in reverse - never trust anyone under 30 - it may take a while for reality to catch up.
The reality of the past few seasons is that the NL Central has been baseball's weakest division. But there are signs that's changing.
Baseball Prospectus has the Cubs winning 91 games this year - that's second in the NL only behind the New York Mets. BP forecasts the Brewers to win 88 - that would be good enough for the Wild Card spot and the third best record in the league should their crystal ball prove accurate.
With the Cubs and Brewers the new forces in the Central, that leaves former powers St. Louis (projected win total - 75) and Houston (projected win total - 72) looking up, way up.
I guess it's a hunch more than anything else, but I think the Cardinals starting staff will be better, maybe much better, than last year. Expectations are so low, it's hard to see how they can underperform. And with a little luck and good health, the rotation to end the season should look dramatically different than the one that starts it.
Play .500 ball or slightly better to the All-Star break and they've got a shot - maybe not at a division title but at least the wildcard.
But just as expectations can be set too low for the starting staff, I think they could be set too high for the bullpen. No one seems to talk that much about this part of the club, as if last year's performance can be easily repeated. I would argue it's not.
Russ Springer turns 40 in November. You think he can repeat his 2.18 ERA?
I recall reading somewhere that Ryan Frankin's ERA was 1.21 the first two months of last season. I don't see that happening again, either.
Closer Jason Isringhausen is 35 years old and a little more than a year recovered from hip surgery. On the left side of the bullpen are the aforementioned Vallone and Randy Flores - two lefties that strike fear in the heart of no one.
I see this team looking for bullpen help no later than July - especially from the left side.
I see better offense and defense from the starting eight, better performances from the starters, but a much weaker bullpen. Hard to see that as a postseason formula unless they make some changes.
I'll take the Brewers to win the Central, the Mets to win the East, and the Dodgers and new manager Joe Torre (and opening day starting baseman Blake DeWitt) to win the West. The Arizona Diamondbacks are my pick for the wildcard. |
Hot topics Cardinals baseball - the Bad News Bears(8 ~ 7:48 AM, Aug 6)
The first place Cards: It's early. Dream big.
Cards opening series What a difference a year makes
Opening day and beyond: Just how good are the 2008 Cards?
Spygate: the other non-scandal
|