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As the Class 4 District 1 competition nears, I think two factors that will play a large role in determining who will ultimately advance to the playoff rounds will be home field advantage and which teams are "hungrier." For the purpose of this thread, I'm not going to consider Perryville. I understand fully that anything can and sometimes does happen in football, but I think we would all agree that Perryville winning any game in district play would take a monumental upset. With that disclaimer in place, let's look at who has homefield advantage and who is hungry:
Sikeston:
Sikeston has the unenviable task of playing BOTH Farmington and Cape away and both games will be on Thursday night. They will face Cape after Cape has played Farmington. Meaning Cape will be playing for either a district championship or for their playoff lives. It doesn't get much tougher than that. Considering "hunger," I wonder how hungry this team will be. Last year's team had never tasted playoff success and their appetite was huge. This year's team has already tasted success; in fact, over the past 20 games, Sikeston is 19-1. I wonder how familiar they are with losing. Do they believe it is possible? Will they go into these last 2 games thinking all they have to do is show up and they'll walk away with a win? Or, will they fall back on their playoff experience from last season and the experience of their tested coaching staff and be ready for the big time?
Cape:
Cape has a split - Farmington on the road and Sikeston at home. Farmington is a tough place to play, but I think it will be an advantage for Cape to have their last meaningful game at home against Sikeston. In terms of "hunger," who could be hungrier than these Tigers? From 0-10 to a possible playoff berth, who would have thought that would be possible? Well, it is definitely possible. If these kids aren't famished come week 8, someone needs to be evaluating them for an eating disorder.
Farmington:
Things could hardly have worked out more perfectly for the Black Knights. They get BOTH Cape and Sikeston at home; plus Sikeston will be making that long trek up north on a Thursday night. If Sikeston falls at Cape in week 9 will the wind be out of their sails? Will they be wondering what went wrong and play tentative - playing 'not to lose?' Farmington has had recent success, but last year's absence from the playoffs was perhaps a little bit surprising. I'm sure the kids that were part of last year's team will remember that feeling and will definitely not want to experience that again. And I'm sure Farmington's coaching staff will be reminding them of that every opportunity they get. I would guess the Black Knights are hopeful for a Thanksgiving style feast to end the regular season. They might even be thinking about appetizers and a dessert.
If I consider home and hunger only, I would predict the district would end as follows:
1. Farmington
2. Cape
3. Sikeston
4. Perryville
That's my two cents. "Home and Hunger." Any thoughts from the experts out there?
Replies
Good post, football monkey. As much as I hate to say it, since I'm a Sikeston fan, I think your right. With Farmington playing both Sikeston and Cape at home, they're clearly the favorite, and Cape will probably want it more than Sikeston and Farminton. But that's why we play the games. Who knows maybe Perryville will run the table and win district.
I'm slightly surprised by football monkey's predictions. But he is the football expert. I don't claim to be a football expert.
I would have picked Farmington to finish No. 3, with Cape Central and Sikeston being the top two teams in the district.
Yeah but coming from a team that has seen all 3 of those teams, I think Farmington has some holes in their defense that could cause them problems. I didn't see much of a weakness in Cape and only seen some special teams problems with Sikeston. If the game comes down to special teams, Cape clearly has the advantage.
Dustin,
This isn't necessarily my prediction for how the district will turn out. In this post I'm considering "hunger and home" only. I'm going to consider many more possibilities and see how teams perform in their last pre-district game before breaking out the crystal ball.
All of this makes sense. It is wide open. Sikeston has the better athletes. Cape has the better team. Farmington has the best offense. Sikeston has a focusing problem. They feel as if the game is won before they get off the bus. Farmington is more than likely gonna tenderize the Tigers for the Bulldogs. I cant assume that anybody is gonna travel to Farmington and beat them. I know they hung 70 points on Bluff. However,Sikeston put 36 on Bluff while looking horrible on offense.
THE BULLDOGS KICKOFF AND PUNT COVERAGE IS A PROBLEM. I am a little concerned about there linebackers pass coverage as well. They're cornerbacks are solid. But they are weak in the middle of the field.
We all know Cape has not been hit in the mouth. But, Central plays for each other. I hate being redundant but they are Hungry and I think they are gonna be quite anxious which is a nice ingredient for a choke a job. The Tigers play as a unit and they will show everyone whatever it is they are made of in weeks 8 and 9. They will not be leading either of those games 28-0 at halftime. We know Coach Payne will have his Tigers ready to play. But there are still so many questions? How will they handle Zach Hibbet running the spread like Chase Daniels? How will they stop Trey Lewis and Daryl Howard running the option like Tommy Frazier and Lawrence Phillips remains to be seen. Get your popcorn ready!!
One thing to consider. What if Cape Beats Farmington, Sikeston beat Cape and then Farmington beats Sikeston. Then it comes down to the points scored in each game for the tie breaker. Who scores the most points?
Good point, bigknightfan. I think this scenario is at least reasonably likely. Remember, the first tie breaker is NOT total number of points scored in each game; it is point differential with a maximum of 13 (I think. It might be 20) per game.
Dogs have problems,but it will all work out in the end.Hunger,desire,what ever you want to call it,Sikeston will show up and win the district out right.I did pick them to loose to Cape only,but i also think they can beat them.WIN OR NO WIN.....
SIKESTON-47
PERRYVILLE-0
SIKESTON-35
CAPE-19
SIKESTON-21
FARMINGTON-16
It looks as though if it comes down to the points spread Cape might have the advantage. Farmington and Sikeston have the potential to score the most but Cape, IMO, has the best defense of the three.
I am picking Cape to win districts because they should be able to use both their speed and power against Farmington, but playing at Farmington will make it much much more difficult. They should be able to just pound the ball away in week 9 against Sikeston. Yes Sikeston is faster but that means nothing if Cape can pick up 4 yards a play. St. Charles West runs an option offense, and even though they didn't use it against Cape I'm sure they were well prepared for it. My only concern with Cape is that they have only had to play 1 whole game this year, against Festus, they have had nice enough leads in the second half that they have been able to play reserves and rest the starters.
I think that Sikeston's downfall will be their slow starts. It looks like in nearly every game they come out weak in the first half and Cape and Farmington both come out and punch their opponent in the mouth in that opening half.
What happens if each game is a close one, say 6 or less points going into the 4th quarter. Who can handle the pressure of keeping the lead or trying to score and win the game. Who has the best players that can handle the pressure.
Slow starts? Sikeston has out-scored their opponents 100-18 in the first quarter and 70-24 in the second quarter this year. Only one game this year did they get off to a "slow" start and that was against Bluff.
Who knows? I would have to say Farmington simply based on Hibbit's experience. But the fact of the matter is, none of these teams have had to do that recently. Sikeston's last 20 games have featured 17 wins of greater than 20 points, 1 win of 15 points, 1 win of 8 points and one 29 point loss. Farmington has not had a close game this season. Cape was blown out 10 times last year and blown out 6 teams this year. I don't think we have a clue how any of these teams will respond in a tough game. Cape has a bunch of seniors who in my opinion are still learning how to win. We have no idea how they will respond in a big game. Farmington has an experienced field general. Sikeston can score bunches of points in a hurry from anywhere on the field and in a variety of ways, but will they be able to line up, run the football between the tackles with a 6 point lead, bleed 6 minutes off the clock and preserve a close win? Who knows.
It will come down to who has the weakest players and in what key position those players on in.
Hannibal waxed Farmington 40-13 earlier this season,
Hannibal has been tough all year, playing with Quincy Notre Dame 36-32 loss, and a loss to Class 5 Hickman 20-17
Helias also got beaten by Quincy Notre Dame 41-21, but beat Hickman 17-14.
Helias also just beat Class 6 , 5th ranked Rock Bridge,
So before we start debating who goes to State out of District 1 or 2, , lets think about these two little teams out west, and, for fun, lets add Kearney , Webb City, Carthage, Harrisonville, Ladue, Savannah, MICDS, ........just to name a few , "other" little teams, that think they are pretty good as well......
Headhunt,
If you know off the top of your head, what is the likely progression of opponents for the D1, D2 representative from Class 4? I would assume the quarterfinal round would be MICDS or Ladue (some Stl school) and after that the semis would likely be Hannibal. Is this accurate?
football monkey: MICDS or Ladue would be in the quarter-finals. They are both in the same District (6), so one will be knocked out, but Union (D9), Helias (D12), Hannibal (D13), Webb City (D11), and Kearney (D15) will all be in the lower bracket it looks like. So if either Cape, Farmington or Sikeston makes it past the quarter-finals then each one I would think may have a good shot playing in the Finals. I don't think that any one of the three teams would mind that.
So Hannibal, perched on the banks of the Mississippi, is in the WEST bracket? How's that?
Since Ladue and MICDS are in District 6, the District 1 winner (going by the assumption of everyone that they make it by the round of 16) would not play either one until the semi-final round. Affton, Bishop DuBourg, Festus, Windsor, Gateway, Miller Career, Roosevelt, and St. Mary's are the teams in Districts 3 and 4. Do any of our expert prognosticators know what to expect from one of these teams? I'm not up to date on these teams other than Festus who I know is talented but was defeated by Cape.
All I can go by is recent history, which would suggest none of these teams should represent a challenge.
Class 4 football in the state of Missouri is and has been dominated by Kearney High school and it doesn't matter who makes it to the dome Kearney will mop the turf with anyone any class.
Yep, Hannibal, is in MIghty District 13, with Moberly, Mexico, and Kirksville, so, if my overview is correct, the champ of District 1,2,3,4 plays the champ of District 5 ,6 ,7 ,8
in the Semis, winner going to the dome..
Ladue, is in District 6, Borgia is in 8,
Vashon in 5, St Charles, Wstminster in 7...
Ladue is the only ranked team in Class 4 in any of Districts 5, 6, 7 or 8
MICDS is gaining ground, but, I dont know about them, They did not look unbeatable at jamboree in August at Hillsboro.
to be honest, when you comapare the east,
with the west,
D9 Union,
D10 Marshfield, West PLains
D11 Webb City, Carthage
D12 Bolivar, Helias
D13 Hannibal
D14 Harrisonville
D15 Kearney
D16 Savannah
I mean, can you imagine going through THAT to get to the dome?
While we have , what ? Potosi? Gatway Tech ?
Vashon, Ladue and ???
not exactly muderers row
I'll put it like this. The Cape-Farmington game will decide who is in line for the #2 spot in 4-1. Central looks like the road jitters may be gone from them for good, but then again, Zach Hibbets is a senior.
Should be a fun time in the Mineral Area next Friday.
The best thing about Class 4 Dist. 1 is the competitiveness among realistically three teams. In many years there is a clear cut favorite, this year probably not, though Farmington has the home field in 2 big contests. Whoever comes out, the top 2 in Dist. 1 will probably be the favorite in the first round and could meet up again. Good, tough football is being played in this District which is good to see.
That might be the worst part of the whole thing. That what ever two teams come out of district 1 will most likely have to play again in week two of playoffs.
Yep. Last year Sikeston had to beat Bluff twice. Most years I'm opposed to our current format of allowing two teams from each district to advance, but this year in Class 4 District 1, I think it's appropriate. It would be a shame for the 2nd place team in this district not to have a chance to play in the playoffs. In a perfect world, I'd love to see them split the teams up a bit more, maybe keeping two teams from the same district from facing each other until the quarters.
I second football monkeys suggestion.
Agreed, and considering some other districts, and the teams in them, and THEIR records, I bet they wish they could escape the "box" they are in as well...for example( see below )
I bet Carthage is not looking forward to playing Webb City in Ditrict play , and getting them again in 2 weeks...or 3 depending on when they play in districts...
same can be said of the other good teams in good districts,
As MOnkey is alluding to , I bet you put Carthage in the east, or Lafayete, or Grain Valley....maybe THEY run the table, as opposed to getting beat, by the same team that made them runner up in regualr season play ...( districts)
D11
Webb City 6-0
Carthage 6-0
D12
Bolivar 6-0
Warrensburg 4-2
D13
Hannibal 4-2
Moberly 4-2
D14
Harrisonville 5-1
Center 5-1
Grain Valey 4-1
D15
Kearney 5-0
D16
Savannah 6-0
Lafayette 5-1
Benton 5-1
Kearney and Webb City are frightful.